One of the most popular traps that players fall into is The Gambler’s Fallacy. And it’s especially easy to fall for in roulette. To illustrate The Gambler’s Fallacy in roulette I’m going to share how I fell for it myself.
When I turned 21 I was anxious to go to the casino for the first time. My father and brother made special trips a couple of times a year and I looked forward to joining the fun. When we got there I was surprised by how much money my brother was throwing around. He would walk around casually putting $100 into $5 slot machines and betting hundreds at the roulette table.
Here’s the “system” he taught me on my first trip to the casino:
You watch the roulette board and wait for a long streak of red or black hits. So let’s say black has hit 4 times in a row, you bet on red. If black hits again, you double your bet on red. You continue to do this because eventually, the ball HAS to land on red. You always end up winning double your original bet.
I would watch my brother wait for a streak of red or black hits on the roulette board. Then, he would put $100 on the opposite. If he lost he would double the bet. Sometimes the bet would get up to $800, but he always won his money back +$100.
I was shocked that beating roulette was this simple. It wasn’t until I lost over $1000 in a matter of minutes that I took the time to learn why this strategy is a bad idea.
Later that same year on vacation, a friend and I visited a casino. I was eager to test out the system my brother had shown me. Everything went great for the first half hour or so. I was up to several hundred dollars. Then my luck changed.
The roulette wheel hit black 4 times in a row so I decided to bet $100 on red. The wheel landed on black again. So I put my remaining $200 on red and it hit black yet again. I ran to the ATM to get another $400 to put on red and, to my horror, it landed on black for a 7th time.
I felt out of control and desperate to get my money back and I just knew that the next spin would be red. I ran back to the ATM and withdrew $800 in a last ditch effort to “get even”. I put the $800 on red and watched anxiously and the wheel spun.
For once the ball didn’t land on black, it landed on 00. I was in shock and disbelief. The roulette dealers even looked like they felt sorry for me. At that point I walked out of the casino in shock, vowing to never again rely on any gambling systems.
From that point on I spent time reading about different games and how the odds work. Here’s the big problem with the “system” my brother taught me.
It was actually a mix between the Gambler’s Fallacy and the Martingale betting system. As it applies to roulette, the gambler’s fallacy is when I bet on red because black hit 4 times in a row previously. The fact is, each spin of the roulette wheel is independent, meaning that black has just has much of a chance of being hit on the 5th spin.
Casinos use that well-lit roulette board for a reason. They want players to believe they can predict the outcome of the next spin, when in actuality, there’s no way to do so.
Have you fallen into the trap of The Gambler’s Fallacy? Share your story with us below!